What is the probability that an airplane, which has just left on time, belongs to Airline A, Airline B, or Airline C? How do these probabilities compare to each other?

Question

Garrett · Answer

Probability Calculation: Airline A has 50% of all scheduled flights with an on-time rate of 80%. Therefore, the probability of an airplane belonging to Airline A is 0.4 (0.5 x 0.8). Airline B has 30% of scheduled flights with an on-time rate of 65%, resulting in a probability of 0.195 (0.3 x 0.65). Airline C, which has the remaining 20% of flights and an on-time rate of 40%, has a probability of 0.08 (0.2 x 0.4)  Comparison of Probabilities: The probability that an airplane belongs to Airline A is 0.4, Airline B is 0.195, and Airline C is 0.08. Comparing these probabilities, it is evident that there is a higher chance that the airplane belongs to Airline A if it has just left on time.  Insights: The probabilities are influenced by both the market shares and the on-time rates of the airlines. Airline A, with the highest market share and a relatively high on-time rate, has the highest probability. On the other hand, Airline C, with the lowest market share and on-time rate, has the lowest probability.  These probabilities provide valuable insights into the likelihood of an airplane belonging to a specific airline in Iloilo, given that it has just departed on time.

Three Airlines' Probability Analysis in Iloilo

Probability Calculation:

Comparison of Probabilities:

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